Should you wait until the next bull cycle to drop your project?
The crypto market like any market moves in cycles that generally correlate with economic cycles.
We see higher demand and success for more creators during periods of economic expansion or recovery than we would in periods of decline or recession. Most project are likely to position themselves for success if they drop during bull. This is due to the bull market being a period of high market confidence, where there are far more buyers in the market. On top of this, we are in a space where buyers are keen to buy NFTs before they become popular.
However, who your buyers are likely to be are far more skewed during the bull market. The crypto space is still a very new space, and most buyers are here to make money. It is a cliché in this space, but as of right now Web 3 has more VCs than users. Buyers are not satisfied with just the product; they want to be able to sell that product for more than they bought it for.
As a creator, you may have a long term view but most of the buyers in this space are looking for consistent updates and fast confirmations that their “investment” was the right one. This is why one of the key pieces of advice that we recommend when dropping during any market period but especially a bull market, is to build the narrative of looking for buyers who believe and have the same long term view on what you are offering.
Given the strengths of the bull market, it begs the question why you would do a drop during the bear market? Well for one, it will be far easier to market to the right buyer. There is also significantly less competition, making it easier to stand out from the crowd. In addition, there is less noise during the bear market. A bull market is full of trends, led by projects that innovated and then followed by 1000 other projects who copy them. They block visibility from projects that don’t follow the meta and give them even less of a space to shine, as money pours from one copycat into another. As is true in the business world, recessions are great times to innovate and if you have an innovative or unique project, then it may find the time of day, that it wouldn’t have during a bull.
Metas occur during bull and bear markets. These are trends that revolve around the art style (pixel, AI), content (unaesthetic design, virtual land, anime) or a specific novelty (omni chains, CC0, staking). The reality of these metas is the projects that follow them are mainly by creators with no long term intent and sometimes bad actors in the space. One should never push their project into the meta, however if it is possible to make small changes perhaps via marketing or through meta-relevant collaborations then this can be a great way to get some of the limelight on your project.
It is important to remember, market considerations is only one contributor to a successful drop but not the end all and be all. Your marketing, team, and product play much bigger roles in that regard. Our next article will consider the road map to setting up your team and an organisational structure to optimize for communication and accountability.
